18 Bristol Dr

Palm Coast, FL 32137

$369,990C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 152 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,940/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$1,001
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$827
• Net cashflow: $-79/mo
• Annual: $-947/yr
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $103,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-947/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $356k (3.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $370k).
• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $326k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Old Kings Elementary School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 979 students, 52% FRL); Indian Trails Middle School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,518 students, 50% FRL); Matanzas High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,978 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1616 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $370k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,940/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 816% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.