18 Bristol Dr · Palm Coast, FL 32137

$369,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1989 5,462 sqft lot Est $471k · 22% under $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come enjoy this home in the Gated Ocean Front Community of Sea Colony in Palm Coast. Centrally located for shopping, golf, Washington Oaks State Park and enjoy the private beach, club house and pool / spa in this well-maintained community. St Augustine and Daytona Beach are only a short drive. This home offers two bedrooms and a den, that can be converted into a third bedroom, two full bathrooms, living room, dining room and an eat in kitchen. New Roof 2024, New HVAC 2025. This is one of the largest one-story homes with over 1600 sq ft. Step outside to an oversize screened in porch, that is backed by state land, no neighbors behind you. Very low HOA with no CDD and with a great social calen

Key facts

• Private beach
• Club house
• Pool spa

Tags

• GATED OCEAN FRONT COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE BEACH
• CLUB HOUSE
• POOL SPA
• OVERSIZE SCREENED IN PORCH
• BACKED BY STATE LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage approximately 0.13 (about 0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $250 (includes management and pool); Association provides clubhouse, gated entry, pool, shuffleboard court, and spa/hot tub; Association approval required; Association: Leland Management; Pets not allowed; Development: Sea Colony

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: 24-hour guard included in HOA
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; PUD zoning; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered screened porch; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Skylight
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-947/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $356k (3.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $370k).
• Recommended offer: $326k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Old Kings Elementary School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 979 students, 52% FRL); Indian Trails Middle School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,518 students, 50% FRL); Matanzas High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,978 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1616 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,940/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 816% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $370k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $471,456
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Bedford Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-4%)	8mo	$344,000	$218	79
11 Seminole Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-0%)	5mo	$519,000	$318	74
31 Andover Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,758 (+7%)	4mo	$325,000	$185	74
30 Armand Beach Dr	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,732 (+6%)	7mo	$417,500	$241	69
16 Avalon Ter	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,842 (+12%)	3mo	$530,000	$288	68
29 Bristol Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,398 (-15%)	1mo	$519,000	$371	67
30 Medford Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,722 (+5%)	6mo	$325,600	$189	67
12 Moody Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+7%)	1mo	$685,000	$392	66
14 Dogwood Ter	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,834 (+12%)	3mo	$520,000	$284	66
45 Moody Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+6%)	5mo	$695,000	$402	61
9 Flagler Dr	0.39mi	3/3.0	1,760 (+8%)	9mo	$550,000	$313	58
31 Ocean St	0.59mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,714 (+5%)	5mo	$479,000	$279	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-72,874
• Equity at exit: $55,167

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-100,897
• Equity at exit: $31,990

Cash invested: $103,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32137

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1616
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,940 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$420 /mo · $5,044/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$827
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,040

Max offer price $356,052

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $26	+0% $-79	+5% $-184	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-390	-5% $-235	+0% $-79	+5% $77	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $15	base $-79	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,498
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22 Bristol Dr Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1637	$1,975	$1.21	16d	1	0.01mi
35 Andover Dr Unit 1060869P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,150	$2.11	16d	1	0.17mi
1 Bedford Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2032	$4,800	$2.36	25d	1	0.19mi
25 Andover Dr Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,900	$1.64	25d	1	0.20mi
22 Atlantic Dr Palm Coast, FL	2.0	1.0	1056	$3,500	$3.31	16d	1	0.42mi
37 Atlantic Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1501	$7,500	$5.00	25d	1	0.49mi
37 Atlantic Dr Unit 1261604P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1991	$8,011	$4.02	25d	1	0.49mi
27 Mala Compra Rd Unit 1261612P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1991	$7,806	$3.92	13d	1	0.50mi
20 Sabal Bnd Unit 1 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1466	$2,100	$1.43	23d	1	1.29mi
58 Comanche Ct Unit 1261614P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2195	$5,998	$2.73	13d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $369,990 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,990 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,990 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,990 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,990 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $369,990 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,990 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,990 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,990 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $369,990 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,990 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,990 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,990 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,990 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,990 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-03-07
    price $369,990
17. 2026-01-20
    listed $379,990 Active
18. 2025-07-20
    historical
19. 2025-03-15
    price $399,000
20. 2025-01-28
    listed $425,000 Active
21. 1989-04-01
    soldstatus $122,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,044 · $420/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,044 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,725
• − Property taxes: −$5,044
• − Insurance: −$6,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,782
• − Management: −$3,782
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$10,763
• Taxable loss: −$6,788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,629
• After-tax cash flow: $682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,391
• Household income: $83,923
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 816.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.27%
• Current HPI: 290.4607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+202.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $369,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Listed $379,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-15 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-28 Listed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $122,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,044 · -9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.