Symphony Plan

Ormond Beach, FL 32174

$389,990D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,397 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,013/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$733
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-450/mo
• Annual: $-5,405/yr
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $111,999

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (22.7% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $301k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#55 in FL, #965 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Trail Elementary School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 688 students, 45% FRL); Ormond Beach Middle School (math 57% / reading 55%, grade B-, #175 of 571 statewide, top 31%, 990 students, 48% FRL); Seabreeze High School (math 31% / reading 56%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 1,654 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1687 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in Ormond Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,013/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 19% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.