11151 Fm 230

Lovelady, TX 75851

$168,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,131/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-267/mo
• Annual: $-3,209/yr
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (32.7% below list).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $376 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#989 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lovelady ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #231 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lovelady El (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 285 students, 53% FRL); Lovelady J H H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 253 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.