11151 Fm 230 · Lovelady, TX 75851

$168,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 143 Days on market

Built 1995 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL SETTING & NEAT AS A PIN! This very well-maintained mobile home is move-in-ready and offers great storage space with multiple outbuildings, a peaceful setting among beautiful hardwood trees, and plenty of room for a garden or your animals. The attractive split floor plan has the primary bedroom, bathroom, and laundry area on one side of the kitchen, and living room, along with two guest bedrooms, and bathroom on the other. The kitchen is spacious with a large island and room for a dining table, plus seating at the island. There is a 2-car carport in front of a large storage building with a great little workshop space and an adjacent room with an a/c unit and bathroom. The large back porch is handicap accessible. Most appliances will convey with the sale. This home is in the highly desirable Lovelady ISD. Give us a call today for a private tour.

Key facts

• 2 car carport
• Split floor plan
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• ROOM FOR A GARDEN
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• 2 CAR CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#989 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lovelady ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #231 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lovelady El (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 285 students, 53% FRL); Lovelady J H H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 253 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $376 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,111 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-20,156
• Equity at exit: $50,670

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,350
• Equity at exit: $62,435

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75851

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$210 /mo · $2,520/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $129,303

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-209	+0% $-267	+5% $-325	+10% $-384
Rent	-10% $-357	-5% $-312	+0% $-267	+5% $-223	+10% $-178
Rate	-1.0pp $-183	-0.5pp $-225	base $-267	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $168,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $168,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $168,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $168,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $168,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $168,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $168,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 122 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $168,000 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SETTING & NEAT AS A PIN! This very well-maintained mobile home is move-in-ready and offers great storage space with multiple outbuildings, a peaceful setting among beautiful hardwood trees, and plenty of room for a garden or your animals. The attractive split floor plan has the primary bedroom, bathroom, and laundry area on one side of the kitchen, and living room, along with two guest bedrooms, and bathroom on the other. The kitchen is spacious with a large island and room for a dining table, plus seating at the island. There is a 2-car carport in front of a large storage building with a great little workshop space and an adjacent room with an a/c unit and bathroom (water has been capped, but could easily be hooked back up). The large back porch is handicap accessible. All appliances will convey with the sale. This home is in the highly desirable Lovelady ISD. Give us a call today for a private tour.

19. 2026-04-28
    price $168,000 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SETTING & NEAT AS A PIN! This very well-maintained mobile home is move-in-ready and offers great storage space with multiple outbuildings, a peaceful setting among beautiful hardwood trees, and plenty of room for a garden or your animals. The attractive split floor plan has the primary bedroom, bathroom, and laundry area on one side of the kitchen, and living room, along with two guest bedrooms, and bathroom on the other. The kitchen is spacious with a large island and room for a dining table, plus seating at the island. There is a 2-car carport in front of a large storage building with a great little workshop space and an adjacent room with an a/c unit and bathroom (water has been capped, but could easily be hooked back up). The large back porch is handicap accessible. All appliances will convey with the sale. This home is in the highly desirable Lovelady ISD. Give us a call today for a private tour.

20. 2026-04-14
    price $184,900 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SETTING & NEAT AS A PIN! This very well-maintained mobile home is move-in-ready and offers great storage space with multiple outbuildings, a peaceful setting among beautiful hardwood trees, and plenty of room for a garden or your animals. The attractive split floor plan has the primary bedroom, bathroom, and laundry area on one side of the kitchen, and living room, along with two guest bedrooms, and bathroom on the other. The kitchen is spacious with a large island and room for a dining table, plus seating at the island. There is a 2-car carport in front of a large storage building with a great little workshop space and an adjacent room with an a/c unit and bathroom. The large back porch is handicap accessible. Most appliances will convey with the sale. This home is in the highly desirable Lovelady ISD. Give us a call today for a private tour.

21. 2026-04-14
    price $184,900 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SETTING & NEAT AS A PIN! This very well-maintained mobile home is move-in-ready and offers great storage space with multiple outbuildings, a peaceful setting among beautiful hardwood trees, and plenty of room for a garden or your animals. The attractive split floor plan has the primary bedroom, bathroom, and laundry area on one side of the kitchen, and living room, along with two guest bedrooms, and bathroom on the other. The kitchen is spacious with a large island and room for a dining table, plus seating at the island. There is a 2-car carport in front of a large storage building with a great little workshop space and an adjacent room with an a/c unit and bathroom. The large back porch is handicap accessible. Most appliances will convey with the sale. This home is in the highly desirable Lovelady ISD. Give us a call today for a private tour.

22. 2026-04-07
    price $187,400 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SETTING & NEAT AS A PIN! This very well-maintained mobile home is move-in-ready and offers great storage space with multiple outbuildings, a peaceful setting among beautiful hardwood trees, and plenty of room for a garden or your animals. The attractive split floor plan has the primary bedroom, bathroom, and laundry area on one side of the kitchen, and living room, along with two guest bedrooms, and bathroom on the other. The kitchen is spacious with a large island and room for a dining table, plus seating at the island. There is a 2-car carport in front of a large storage building with a great little workshop space and an adjacent room with an a/c unit and bathroom (water has been capped, but could easily be hooked back up). The large back porch is handicap accessible. All appliances will convey with the sale. This home is in the highly desirable Lovelady ISD. Give us a call today for a private tour.

23. 2026-04-07
    price $187,400 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SETTING & NEAT AS A PIN! This very well-maintained mobile home is move-in-ready and offers great storage space with multiple outbuildings, a peaceful setting among beautiful hardwood trees, and plenty of room for a garden or your animals. The attractive split floor plan has the primary bedroom, bathroom, and laundry area on one side of the kitchen, and living room, along with two guest bedrooms, and bathroom on the other. The kitchen is spacious with a large island and room for a dining table, plus seating at the island. There is a 2-car carport in front of a large storage building with a great little workshop space and an adjacent room with an a/c unit and bathroom (water has been capped, but could easily be hooked back up). The large back porch is handicap accessible. All appliances will convey with the sale. This home is in the highly desirable Lovelady ISD. Give us a call today for a private tour.

24. 2026-01-29
    listed $189,900 Active 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SETTING & NEAT AS A PIN! This very well-maintained mobile home is move-in-ready and offers great storage space with multiple outbuildings, a peaceful setting among beautiful hardwood trees, and plenty of room for a garden or your animals. The attractive split floor plan has the primary bedroom, bathroom, and laundry area on one side of the kitchen, and living room, along with two guest bedrooms, and bathroom on the other. The kitchen is spacious with a large island and room for a dining table, plus seating at the island. There is a 2-car carport in front of a large storage building with a great little workshop space and an adjacent room with an a/c unit and bathroom (water has been capped, but could easily be hooked back up). The large back porch is handicap accessible. All appliances will convey with the sale. This home is in the highly desirable Lovelady ISD. Give us a call today for a private tour.

25. 2026-01-29
    listed $189,900 Active 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SETTING & NEAT AS A PIN! This very well-maintained mobile home is move-in-ready and offers great storage space with multiple outbuildings, a peaceful setting among beautiful hardwood trees, and plenty of room for a garden or your animals. The attractive split floor plan has the primary bedroom, bathroom, and laundry area on one side of the kitchen, and living room, along with two guest bedrooms, and bathroom on the other. The kitchen is spacious with a large island and room for a dining table, plus seating at the island. There is a 2-car carport in front of a large storage building with a great little workshop space and an adjacent room with an a/c unit and bathroom (water has been capped, but could easily be hooked back up). The large back porch is handicap accessible. All appliances will convey with the sale. This home is in the highly desirable Lovelady ISD. Give us a call today for a private tour.

26. 2017-06-02
    soldstatus
27. 2017-05-28
    historical
28. 2017-02-01
    listed $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$2,520
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$6,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,501
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lovelady ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828410
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,424
• Composite: 40.13/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #231 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lovelady

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #989
• US rank: #17635

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,292

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,269 people
• By 2030: 20,568 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 19,255 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 17,980 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 15,214 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 11,720 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 22.1% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Current HPI: 123.1716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+184.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $168,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $184,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $187,400 GTAR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $187,400 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $189,900 GTAR
• 2017-06-02 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-05-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-02-01 Listed $59,000 NTREIS