3120 N Circle Dr

Humboldt, TN 38343

$145,000C+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,659/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $453/mo
• Annual: $5,431/yr
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.38%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#289 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Humboldt City Schools (town): math 4% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #138 of 139 in TN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #884 of 952 statewide, top 93%, 440 students, 0% FRL); Humboldt Junior/Senior High School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #302 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 424 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 86% district-wide (86 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Gibson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gibson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $145k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.