3120 N Circle Dr · Humboldt, TN 38343

$145,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1973 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer Upper Priced to SELL!!! Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their own personal touch. Located in a desirable neighborhood, close to schools & shopping! This spacious home has 4 bedrooms upstairs, living room and kitchen on the main level & a den, half bath & utility room downstairs. Selling as is. Bring all offers!!

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Kitchen
• Living room

Tags

• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• SPACIOUS HOME
• LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.27 acres; Lot dimensions approximately 120 x 137 (irregular)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes include 12x12, 11x11, 10x11, 10x11
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cooktop; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#289 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Humboldt City Schools (town): math 4% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #138 of 139 in TN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #884 of 952 statewide, top 93%, 440 students, 0% FRL); Humboldt Junior/Senior High School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #302 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 424 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 86% district-wide (86 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Gibson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gibson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $145k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.38%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,265
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $41,444
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38343

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,086

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3107 Redwood St Humboldt, TN	3.0	2.0	2008	$1,750	$0.87	43d	1	0.04mi
2107 Campbell St Humboldt, TN	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,100	$0.55	43d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   listed $145,000 Active
8. 2026-05-04
   listed $145,000 Active 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   Fixer Upper Priced to SELL!!! Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their own personal touch. Located in a desirable neighborhood, close to schools & shopping! This spacious home has 4 bedrooms upstairs, living room and kitchen on the main level & a den, half bath & utility room downstairs. Selling as is. Bring all offers!!

9. 2001-03-16
   soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $450 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,030 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$580/yr (+$48/mo · 128.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $3,211
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$771
• After-tax cash flow: $4,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humboldt City Schools
• NCES district ID: 4701950
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,717
• Composite: 4.86/100
• National rank: #10042
• State rank: #138 of 139 in TN

Livability — Humboldt

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #20318

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Humboldt, TN
• City population: 15,672
• Population (ZIP): 15,672

Population outlook (Gibson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,793 people
• By 2030: 48,221 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 46,793 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 44,909 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 40,191 · -17.6%
• By 2100: 33,574 · -31.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 23% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gibson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.6% · R 75.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: -28.8pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+47.0 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.61%
• Current HPI: 206.7365
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+61.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $145,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $145,000 CWTAR
• 2001-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $450 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.