5012 Seagull Dr

Bonanza, OR 97623

$275,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,917 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,376/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$263
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-618/mo
• Annual: $-7,418/yr
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.63%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-618 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (39.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (50.0% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (50.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#254 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Klamath County SD (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 58 in OR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bonanza Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #392 of 412 statewide, top 96%, 233 students, 73% FRL); Bonanza Junior/Senior High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #115 of 143 statewide, top 82%, 221 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 59% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Klamath County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Klamath County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $275k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.