5012 Seagull Dr · Bonanza, OR 97623

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,917 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2004 2.21 ac lot $143/sqft · 22% below area Est $350k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Forget the City and move to the Country. Enjoy the peaceful setting with mature trees around. 2004 Double Wide manufactured home. . 4 BD/2BA home with primary suite and room off the Primary that would be a perfect nursery or private office. The home needs some TLC but some updates have been completed. New interior paint in much of the home and exterior of home was painted in 2025. Property is 2.21 acres, partially fenced and with its own private well and septic. (Records in Documents) 34'x21' Detached Garage with cement floor. Well pump replaced 3 years ago and new exterior paint in Oct 2025. Plenty of room for your animals and hobbies. Garden with Drip System. Located out of the small town of Bonanza Or, just off Keno Springs Road. (Back lots are also available for sale-Parcels 469264 and 469255. - More information to come. )

Key facts

• Private well
• Septic
• Detached garage

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC
• DETACHED GARAGE
• GARDEN WITH DRIP SYSTEM
• ROOM FOR ANIMALS AND HOBBIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-618 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (39.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (50.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (50.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#254 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Klamath County SD (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 58 in OR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bonanza Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #392 of 412 statewide, top 96%, 233 students, 73% FRL); Bonanza Junior/Senior High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #115 of 143 statewide, top 82%, 221 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 59% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Klamath County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Klamath County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $275k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,611 (50.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.63%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,388
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -21.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $110,303
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $355,587
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97623

• Home prices YoY: 18.9%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,783/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,159

Max offer price $165,802

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-462	-5% $-540	+0% $-618	+5% $-696	+10% $-774
Rent	-10% $-727	-5% $-673	+0% $-618	+5% $-564	+10% $-509
Rate	-1.0pp $-480	-0.5pp $-548	base $-618	+0.5pp $-689	+1.0pp $-762

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $320,000 Active 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Forget the City and move to the Country. Enjoy the peaceful setting with mature trees around. 2004 Double Wide manufactured home. . 4 BD/2BA home with primary suite and room off the Primary that would be a perfect nursery or private office. The home needs some TLC but some updates have been completed. New interior paint in much of the home and exterior of home was painted in 2025. Property is 2.21 acres, partially fenced and with its own private well and septic. (Records in Documents) 34'x21' Detached Garage with cement floor. Well pump replaced 3 years ago and new exterior paint in Oct 2025. Plenty of room for your animals and hobbies. Garden with Drip System. Located out of the small town of Bonanza Or, just off Keno Springs Road. (Back lots are also available for sale-Parcels 469264 and 469255. - More information to come. )

17. 2020-04-26
    historical
18. 2016-07-08
    soldstatus $119,900
19. 2016-02-17
    listed $119,900
20. 2011-05-14
    listed $179,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,668 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$885/yr (+$74/mo · 49.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,783
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$12,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,046
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klamath County SD
• NCES district ID: 4107020
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,906
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7593
• State rank: #46 of 58 in OR

Livability — Bonanza

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #17323

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,954

Population outlook (Klamath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,870 people
• By 2030: 62,279 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 58,891 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 56,207 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 51,239 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 46,526 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Slovak 4% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Klamath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.9) · D 27.9% · R 69.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.9 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.97%
• Current HPI: 439.2417
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+78.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $320,000 MLSCO
• 2020-04-26 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2016-07-08 Sold (MLS) $119,900 MLSCO
• 2016-02-17 Listed $119,900 MLSCO
• 2011-05-14 Listed $179,500 MLSCO

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,783 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.