14 Alli Paige Dr

Vilonia, AR 72173

$235,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,705/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,409/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#108 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Vilonia School District (rural): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #23 of 238 in AR (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vilonia Elementary School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 571 students, 46% FRL); Frank Mitchell Intermediate School (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #42 of 201 statewide, top 22%, 654 students, 45% FRL); Vilonia High School (math 32% / reading 49%, grade F, #45 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 859 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Vilonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.