772 Goose Crk

Pigeon Forge, TN 37865

$199,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 532 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,778/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $236/mo
• Annual: $2,831/yr
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.06%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 532 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#36 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 1.1% in Pigeon Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 532 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exposed subfloor — Structural damage
• Major: Missing cabinets — Aesthetic and functional
• Major: Missing fixtures — Aesthetic and functional
• Major: Weathered shingles — Structural integrity
• Major: Weathered siding — Structural integrity
• Major: Exposed subfloor — Structural damage