772 Goose Crk · Seymour, TN 37865

$195,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 628 Days on market

Built 2003 Fair condition 1.20 ac lot $186/sqft · at area comps Est $304k · 35% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Scenic Country Property with Income Potential - 772 Goose Creek Road, Seymour, Tennessee Welcome to 772 Goose Creek Road, a distinctive property offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and endless potential on a beautiful 1.20-acre lot in the peaceful countryside of Seymour, TN. Perfect for investors, families, or anyone seeking a home with versatile use and income opportunity, this property combines rustic charm, open space, and convenience to nearby Knoxville, Sevierville, and the Smoky Mountains. Key Features Vaulted tongue-and-groove ceilings adding rustic, cabin-style warmth Covered porch overlooking scenic fields and rolling hills Flexible floor plan with a basement level ideal for separate living quarters or rental income Functional barn with its own electrical meter — ideal for agricultural use, workshop, or storage Additional storage shed for tools, equipment, or hobby space Cleared 1.20-acre lot perfect for small livestock, gardening, or creating a gentleman's farm Peaceful, private setting just minutes from Seymour amenities and major highways Excellent potential to add value through updates and personalization Lifestyle & Location Experience true East Tennessee country living without sacrificing access to everyday conveniences. Enjoy coffee on your covered porch with mountain views, work on projects in your barn, or explore nearby Knoxville and the Smoky Mountains. This property offers flexibility for a wide range of lifestyles—from family homesteading to investment use. Value & Buyer Appeal With separate utility meters, a large usable lot, and strong rental or resale potential, this home represents a unique investment opportunity. The interior is ready for your updates, allowing you to build equity and create a personalized retreat in a highly desirable area. Note: Due to the condition of the home, USDA, THDA, FHA, and VA financing are not available. Please contact us for a detailed property map and a link to the Matterport tour showcasing the basement living quarters. Schedule Your Showing Opportunities like this don't come often—schedule your private showing today and see how 772 Goose Creek Road can be transformed into your next home, hobby farm, or income-producing property. Disclaimer Buyer to verify all information. Utilities, lot boundaries, and school zones to be independently verified by buyer/buyer's agent. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Some images have been AI-staged to assist with visualization and may not represent actual furnishings or finishes.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Spacious shed
• Functional barn

Tags

• 1.20 ACRE LOT
• FUNCTIONAL BARN
• SPACIOUS SHED
• COVERED PORCH
• BASEMENT LIVING QUARTERS
• QUIET AND SECLUDED SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.3% in Seymour — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#165 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 279 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 628 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $172,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 628 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,663
• List price: $195,900
• Delta: -35.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12710 Chapman Hwy	1.78mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (+0%)	23mo	$187,000	$176	40
870 Seaton Ln	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	8mo	$165,000	$138	36
1015 Ruff Grouse Way	0.99mi	3/1.0	1,188 (+12%)	6mo	$236,000	$199	35
1549 Prettiest Sunset Way	0.86mi	2/1.5 (-1)	936 (-11%)	10mo	$67,000	$72	31
760 Bear Hollow Way Way	1.20mi	1/2.0 (-2)	1,152 (+9%)	13mo	$305,000	$265	29
12850 Chapman Hwy	1.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+18%)	10mo	$300,000	$240	26
626 Sugar Loaf Rd Rd	1.47mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+26%)	18mo	$300,000	$225	25
626 Sugar Loaf Rd	1.47mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+26%)	18mo	$300,000	$225	25
840 Seaton Ln	1.10mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+27%)	24mo	$432,000	$321	20
824 Sugar Loaf Rd	1.74mi	3/1.5	1,222 (+16%)	36mo	$348,000	$285	18
342 Ingle Hollow Rd	2.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+15%)	25mo	$150,000	$123	15
834 Seaton Ln	1.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-25%)	25mo	$305,000	$385	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,684
• Equity at exit: $29,209

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-917
• Equity at exit: $16,938

Cash invested: $54,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $135,000 ($144/sqft)
• Median days on market: 56 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +99.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37865

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,027
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,451

Max offer price $195,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $297	+0% $241	+5% $186	+10% $130
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $172	+0% $241	+5% $311	+10% $380
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $291	base $241	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,975
• Closing costs: $5,877
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $195,900 Active 628 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $195,900 Active 627 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $195,900 Active 625 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $195,900 Active 623 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $195,900 Active 622 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $195,900 Active 621 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $195,900 Active 620 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $195,900 Active 619 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $195,900 Active 618 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $195,900 Active 617 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    pricestatusdays on market $195,900 Active 616 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 610 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 609 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 608 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 607 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 604 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 603 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 602 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 601 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 600 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 599 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 598 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    status $194,900 Pending - Continue to Show 597 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $194,900 Active 597 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $194,900 Active 596 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $194,900 Active 595 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $194,900 Active 594 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $194,900 Active 593 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $194,900 Active 592 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $194,900 Active 591 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $194,900 Active 590 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $194,900 Active 589 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $194,900 Active 588 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $194,900 Active 587 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $194,900 Active 586 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $194,900 Active 585 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $194,900 Active 584 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $194,900 Active 583 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $194,900 Active 582 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $194,900 Active 581 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $194,900 Active 580 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $194,900 Active 579 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $194,900 Active 578 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $194,900 Active 577 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 574 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on market $194,900 Active 572 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $199,900 Active 568 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $199,900 Active 567 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,900 Active 566 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $199,900 Active 565 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $448 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$943/yr (+$79/mo · 210.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,973
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$5,699
• Taxable loss: −$394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$95
• After-tax cash flow: $2,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $26,400–$47,520 screening

This property requires moderate renovations to address structural and aesthetic issues, but has potential for significant value increase with updates.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed subfloor — Structural damage
• Major Missing cabinets — Aesthetic and functional
• Major Missing fixtures — Aesthetic and functional
• Major Weathered shingles — Structural integrity
• Major Weathered siding — Structural integrity
• Major Exposed subfloor — Structural damage

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace missing cabinets — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace missing fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace weathered shingles — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace weathered siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pigeon Forge Primary F TN #709/952 Nat'l #35,191/41,679 Middle Sevierville Middle School F TN #116/333 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Seymour High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Seymour

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #14260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 107,903 people
• City population: 25,074
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 25,074
• Household income: $88,231
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.05%
• Current HPI: 339.7655
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $199,900 GSMAR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $199,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $204,900 GSMAR
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $204,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $209,900 GSMAR
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $209,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $217,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $219,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $224,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $229,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-04-18 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-04-01 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $232,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-01-02 Listed $234,900 Knoxville MLS