17225 Valley Unit 9W

Fontana, CA 92335

$170,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,490/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $963/mo
• Annual: $11,551/yr
• Cap rate: 13.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.27%
• DSCR: 2.08
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $963 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#415 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Colton Joint Unified (suburban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 517 in CA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mary B. Lewis Elementary (585 students, 94% FRL); Joe Baca (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #260 of 498 statewide, top 54%, 753 students, 91% FRL); Grand Terrace High Sch At The Ray Abril Jr. Edal Complex (math 20% / reading 58%, grade F, #558 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,726 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.2% in Fontana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.