17225 Valley Unit 9W · Fontana, CA 92335

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 115 Days on market

Built 2000 2,800 sqft lot $136/sqft · 10% below area Est $188k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller, nice property spacious seller will paint before COE, Washer and Drier will stay 3 big bedrooms and Jacuzzi like Bathtub, your client will love it to relax after work, make an offer that seller won't refuse Thank for showing our listings

Key facts

• 2,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $963 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.2% in Fontana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#415 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Colton Joint Unified (suburban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 517 in CA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.27%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,079
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -9.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17377 valley Blvd #43	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+6%)	7mo	$222,500	$168	76
17333 Valley Unit 33 E	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	13mo	$169,900	$126	71
17377 Valley Blvd #53	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	22mo	$207,000	$173	67
17400 Valley Blvd #55	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	14mo	$200,000	$149	62
17400 Valley Blvd #24	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	17mo	$186,000	$138	60
17455 Marygold Ave #38	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-10%)	9mo	$150,000	$134	50
16860 Slover Ave #70	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+12%)	6mo	$207,000	$148	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $32,049
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $99,925
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92335

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,490 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $509/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $963

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,272

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,059	-5% $1,011	+0% $963	+5% $914	+10% $866
Rent	-10% $766	-5% $864	+0% $963	+5% $1,061	+10% $1,159
Rate	-1.0pp $1,048	-0.5pp $1,006	base $963	+0.5pp $919	+1.0pp $874

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16970 Marygold Ave Fontana, CA	2.0	2.0	1045	$2,275	$2.18	21d	2	0.57mi
16770 San Bernardino Ave Fontana, CA	2.0	1.5	968	$2,275	$2.35	25d	2	0.94mi
16770 San Bernardino Ave Unit 19B Fontana, CA	2.0	1.5	968	$2,350	$2.43	44d	1	0.94mi
16816 Fontlee Ln Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$2,200	$2.56	19d	1	1.15mi
18181 Valley Blvd Bloomington, CA	2.0	1.5	814	$1,960	$2.41	44d	2	1.16mi
9281 Pepper Ave Unit 04 Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	25d	1	1.38mi
9223 Cypress Ave Unit 203 Fontana, CA	2.0	1.5	1008	$2,550	$2.53	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-02-26
    listed $170,000 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Motivated seller, nice property spacious seller will paint before COE, Washer and Drier will stay 3 big bedrooms and Jacuzzi like Bathtub, your client will love it to relax after work, make an offer that seller won't refuse Thank for showing our listings

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$783/yr (+$65/mo · 154.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$509
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,391
• − Management: −$2,391
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $9,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,226
• After-tax cash flow: $9,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colton Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609390
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,178
• Composite: 23.74/100
• National rank: #7820
• State rank: #373 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fontana

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #14177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fontana, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 203,028
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 97,511
• Household income: $77,949
• Rent vs Own: 51.8% rent · 48.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3437.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 13% White 8% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 69% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -804.67%
• Current HPI: 507.5862
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.34%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $170,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $509 · -10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.