48 Lake St

Webster, MA 01570

$324,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-272/mo
• Annual: $-3,263/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.60%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $90,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $324k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (33.0% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#183 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Webster (suburban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #286 of 302 in MA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Park Avenue Elementary (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #689 of 938 statewide, top 74%, 737 students, 0% FRL); Webster Middle School (math 11% / reading 23%, grade F, #266 of 305 statewide, top 88%, 590 students, 0% FRL); Bartlett High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #238 of 343 statewide, top 71%, 365 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $324k implies a 542% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Webster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?