48 Lake St · Webster, MA 01570

$324,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1880 8,843 sqft lot $279/sqft · 11% below area Est $364k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this updated 1880 single-family home, where timeless character meets modern upgrades. the entire first floor has been partly redone. Wood floors, new porch, doors will be put in , windows and efficient gas heating throughout. Second floor needs some work. The yard with an As-is shed, paved drive way with 3 off-street parking spaces, you will have the convenience you need in a location that truly can't be beat. Easy access to shopping, dining, schools, and major route makes the perfect spot.This property needs work.

Key facts

• Wood floors
• New porch
• Paved drive way

Tags

• UPDATED SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• WOOD FLOORS
• NEW PORCH
• EFFICIENT GAS HEATING
• PAVED DRIVE WAY
• OFF-STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Webster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#183 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Webster (suburban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #286 of 302 in MA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Park Avenue Elementary (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #689 of 938 statewide, top 74%, 737 students, 0% FRL); Webster Middle School (math 11% / reading 23%, grade F, #266 of 305 statewide, top 88%, 590 students, 0% FRL); Bartlett High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #238 of 343 statewide, top 71%, 365 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $324k implies a 542% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,192 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.60%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,802
• List price: $324,000
• Delta: -10.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Goddard St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,137 (-2%)	13mo	$339,999	$299	78
12 New St	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,029 (-11%)	1mo	$300,000	$292	69
78 2nd Island Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,168 (+1%)	5mo	$343,000	$294	61
47 Hillside Ave	0.65mi	4/1.0	1,170 (+1%)	10mo	$400,000	$342	60
48 Elm St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,215 (+5%)	22mo	$321,500	$265	59
12 Tower St	0.33mi	4/1.5	1,292 (+11%)	8mo	$360,000	$279	57
19 First St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-10%)	5mo	$280,000	$269	47
8 Mt Pleasant St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	992 (-14%)	5mo	$180,000	$181	43
27 3rd St	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	12mo	$409,900	$316	42
8 Wall St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,023 (-12%)	17mo	$348,000	$340	37
18 Greystone Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,326 (+14%)	11mo	$410,000	$309	37
23 Brodeur Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-10%)	12mo	$339,900	$324	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $159,018
• Equity at exit: $291,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $481,659
• Equity at exit: $629,461

Cash invested: $90,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01570

• Home prices YoY: 20.5%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,844/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,516

Max offer price $275,962

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-89	-5% $-180	+0% $-272	+5% $-364	+10% $-455
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-358	+0% $-272	+5% $-186	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-109	-0.5pp $-190	base $-272	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,000
• Closing costs: $9,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Negus St Webster, MA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,996	$2.50	15d	1	0.34mi
3 Day St Unit 3 Webster, MA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	45d	1	0.44mi
3 Day St Unit 1 Webster, MA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	45d	1	0.44mi
15 5th St Unit 3 Webster, MA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	15d	1	0.67mi
4 Laprise Ct Unit 2 Dudley, MA	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,800	$1.68	23d	1	0.75mi
11 1st Ave Unit 1STFL Dudley, MA	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	21d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $324,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $324,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $324,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $324,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $324,000 New 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Welcome to this updated 1880 single-family home, where timeless character meets modern upgrades. the entire first floor has been partly redone. Wood floors, new porch, doors will be put in , windows and efficient gas heating throughout. Second floor needs some work. The yard with an As-is shed, paved drive way with 3 off-street parking spaces, you will have the convenience you need in a location that truly can't be beat. Easy access to shopping, dining, schools, and major route makes the perfect spot.This property needs work.

18. 2014-01-17
    soldstatus $50,500 Sold 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

19. 2013-06-07
    historical Active (Kick-Out/Right of First Refusal) 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

20. 2013-04-04
    price $59,900 Price Changed 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

21. 2013-03-30
    status Active 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

22. 2012-04-04
    historical Active (Accepted Offer to Purchase) 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

23. 2012-03-09
    price $69,900 Price Changed 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

24. 2012-02-18
    price $75,000 Price Changed 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

25. 2012-02-04
    price $79,900 Price Changed 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

26. 2012-01-25
    price $89,900 Price Changed 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

27. 2012-01-09
    price $99,900 Price Changed 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

28. 2011-12-01
    listed $119,900 New 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Home built in 1880 with a lot of original features. Needs TLC. 0.2 acres and 4 Off-street parking. Needs a lot of work. Short sale. Sold as is. Easy to show on lock box. Buyer provides smoke/ co certificate. Chimney was fixed plaster never replaced. Missing copper. APPROVED SHORTSALE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,844 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,915 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,071/yr (+$89/mo · 58.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,149
• − Property taxes: −$1,844
• − Insurance: −$1,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − Depreciation: −$9,425
• Taxable loss: −$9,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster
• NCES district ID: 2512240
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,939
• Composite: 19.1/100
• National rank: #8837
• State rank: #286 of 302 in MA

Livability — Webster

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #13047

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Webster, MA
• County: Worcester County · 487,911 people
• City population: 17,748
• Metro: Worcester, MA-CT
• Population (ZIP): 17,748
• Household income: $72,895
• Rent vs Own: 40.2% rent · 59.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 690.0

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 850,858 people
• By 2030: 860,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 869,902 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 869,110 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 870,120 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 829,703 · -2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 13% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 12% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: D (+10.0) · D 53.9% · R 43.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.8pp · 2024: 10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.0 2020: D+17.8 2016: D+10.5 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 101.75%
• Current HPI: 598.587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Worcester, MA-CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+170.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $324,000 MLS PIN
• 2014-01-17 Sold (MLS) $50,500 MLS PIN
• 2013-06-07 Contingent — MLS PIN
• 2013-04-04 Price Changed $59,900 MLS PIN
• 2013-03-30 Relisted — MLS PIN
• 2012-04-04 Contingent — MLS PIN
• 2012-03-09 Price Changed $69,900 MLS PIN
• 2012-02-18 Price Changed $75,000 MLS PIN
• 2012-02-04 Price Changed $79,900 MLS PIN
• 2012-01-25 Price Changed $89,900 MLS PIN
• 2012-01-09 Price Changed $99,900 MLS PIN
• 2011-12-01 Listed $119,900 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,844 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.