Lofton Plan

Jackson, PA 16033

$465,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,541 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 162 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,719
• Tax + insurance: −$864
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-819/mo
• Annual: $-9,822/yr
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.77%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $145,191

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $465k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-819 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $400k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (24.7% below list).
• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $350k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Seneca Valley SD (rural): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #73 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ehrman Crest El Sch (math 59% / reading 69%, grade B, #289 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 758 students, 19% FRL); Ryan Gloyer Ms (math 32% / reading 64%, grade C-, #153 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 1,123 students, 21% FRL); Seneca Valley Hs (math 71% / reading 75%, grade B+, #35 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 2,307 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.