Lofton Plan · Jackson, PA 16033

$465,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,541 sqft · Townhouse · 162 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Lofton townhome combines spacious living, thoughtful design, and everyday convenience in a home that adapts beautifully to your lifestyle. The open-concept main level features a large kitchen island overlooking the dining area and great room, creating a natural gathering place for everything from casual meals to entertaining friends and family. A private den near the front entry offers the flexibility to create a home office, reading room, or hobby space. Upstairs, the owner's suite provides a comfortable retreat with a spacious walk-in closet and private bath.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 162 days

🏗️ New construction. The $465,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $518,541.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $465k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-819 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $400k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Seneca Valley SD (rural): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #73 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ehrman Crest El Sch (math 59% / reading 69%, grade B, #289 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 758 students, 19% FRL); Ryan Gloyer Ms (math 32% / reading 64%, grade C-, #153 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 1,123 students, 21% FRL); Seneca Valley Hs (math 71% / reading 75%, grade B+, #35 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 2,307 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $350,000 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.77%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $518,541
• List price: $465,000
• Delta: -10.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1124 Autumn Woods Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	2,314 (-9%)	7mo	$515,000	$223	69
302 Ashbury Ct	1.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,616 (+3%)	0mo	$680,000	$260	53
310 Riva Ridge Dr	0.37mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,892 (+14%)	1mo	$717,500	$248	48
502 Sword Dancer Pl	0.41mi	4/4.5 (+1)	3,136 (+23%)	1mo	$715,900	$228	42
215 Gate Dancer Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,884 (+14%)	5mo	$721,900	$250	40
719 Belmar Pl	0.58mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,173 (+25%)	1mo	$784,000	$247	38
718 Belmar Pl	0.57mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,170 (+25%)	4mo	$715,000	$226	36
106 Moyer Hill Dr	1.50mi	3/2.5	1,912 (-25%)	7mo	$367,000	$192	34
237 Erin Dr	1.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,004 (+18%)	6mo	$699,900	$233	28
109 Oakview Dr	1.10mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,074 (+21%)	7mo	$730,000	$237	25
8057 Maureen Dr	1.35mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,072 (+21%)	10mo	$545,000	$177	23
1547 Garvin Rd	1.20mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,968 (+17%)	12mo	$585,000	$197	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-136,105
• Equity at exit: $77,316

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-185,431
• Equity at exit: $44,834

Cash invested: $145,191 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $577,450 ($276/sqft)
• Median days on market: 381 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -26.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 16033

• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,719
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$648 /mo · $7,778/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-819

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,536

Max offer price $400,100

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-460	-5% $-639	+0% $-819	+5% $-998	+10% $-1,177
Rent	-10% $-1,095	-5% $-957	+0% $-819	+5% $-680	+10% $-542
Rate	-1.0pp $-557	-0.5pp $-687	base $-819	+0.5pp $-953	+1.0pp $-1,090

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,635
• Closing costs: $15,556
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Middleground Pl Cranberry Twp, PA	4.0	3.5	2416	$3,500	$1.45	108d	1	0.64mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $460,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan home (Lofton)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,514

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Lofton (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $465,000 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $465,000 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $465,000 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $465,000 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $465,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $465,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $465,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $465,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $465,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $465,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $465,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $465,000 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $465,000 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $465,000 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $465,000 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $465,000 Active 146 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $465,000 Active 145 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $465,000 Active 144 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $465,000 Active 143 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $465,000 Active 142 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $465,000 Active 141 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $465,000 Active 140 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $465,000 Active 139 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $465,000 Active 138 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $465,000 Active 137 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $465,000 Active 136 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $465,000 Active 135 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $465,000 Active 134 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $465,000 Active 133 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $465,000 Active 132 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $465,000 Active 131 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $465,000 Active 130 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $465,000 Active 129 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $465,000 Active 128 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $465,000 Active 127 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $465,000 Active 125 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $465,000 Active 124 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $465,000 Active 123 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $465,000 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $465,000 Active 121 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $465,000 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $465,000 Active 118 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $465,000 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $465,000 Active 116 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $465,000 Active 115 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $465,000 Active 114 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $465,000 Active 113 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $465,000 Active 112 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $465,000 Active 111 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $465,000 Active 110 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,046
• − Property taxes: −$7,778
• − Insurance: −$2,593
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$15,085
• Taxable loss: −$19,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,705–$38,115 screening

The home is in good condition with no visible damage or wear. It is a good candidate for cosmetic updates such as painting and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding and repainting the interior walls — Painting the exterior and interior can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and add value by making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ehrman Crest El Sch B PA #289/1,518 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Ryan Gloyer Ms C- PA #153/512 Nat'l #3,953/14,009 High Seneca Valley Hs B+ PA #35/437 Nat'l #1,820/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seneca Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4222440
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $80,381
• Composite: 51.84/100
• National rank: #1666
• State rank: #73 of 539 in PA

Livability — Jackson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Butler · 190,777 people
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,934
• Household income: $100,606
• Rent vs Own: 22.5% rent · 77.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 190,777 people
• By 2030: 191,476 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 189,474 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 182,050 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 159,526 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 129,028 · -32.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.5% · R 65.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.54%
• Current HPI: 154.4316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $460,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan home (Lofton)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,514

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Lofton (new construction plan)