9 Falling Brook Rd

Fairport, NY 14450

$299,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,160 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,345/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$816
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-536/mo
• Annual: $-6,436/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.66%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (21.8% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $205k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#301 in NY, #4,847 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: commute F.
• Fairport Central School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #199 of 590 in NY (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $188k; list at $300k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.4% in Fairport — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.