700 Mccoy Ct #42

Lodi, CA 95240

$189,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 853 sqft · Built 1982 · Condo · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,001/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$555
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-987/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-987/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (7.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beckman Elementary (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,313 of 1,571 statewide, top 84%, 534 students, 95% FRL); Lodi Middle (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #256 of 498 statewide, top 52%, 898 students, 80% FRL); Tokay High (math 31% / reading 49%, grade F, #514 of 1,170 statewide, top 44%, 2,059 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 59% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $135k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.9% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.