700 Mccoy Ct #42 · Lodi, CA 95240

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 853 sqft · Condo public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1982 $222/sqft · 10% below area Est $210k · 10% under $555/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Light, bright and move-in ready! This spacious 2 bedroom unit is upstairs in a gated complex, providing an extra layer of security. You'll be greeted into your new home by a vaulted ceiling and a cozy fireplace. You even get a view of the pool from your kitchen. New paint, carpet with pad, microwave, window blinds, and much more! The balcony has also been updated, which provides a great sized storage closet. There's a one car garage and an extra assigned parking spot. Here's your chance to start your home ownership journey, or maybe your first investment. Close to schools, shopping, and Hwy 99.

Key facts

• Gated complex
• View of the pool
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• GATED COMPLEX
• VAULTED CEILING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• VIEW OF THE POOL
• UPDATED BALCONY
• GREAT SIZED STORAGE CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-987/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (7.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.9% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beckman Elementary (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,313 of 1,571 statewide, top 84%, 534 students, 95% FRL); Lodi Middle (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #256 of 498 statewide, top 52%, 898 students, 80% FRL); Tokay High (math 31% / reading 49%, grade F, #514 of 1,170 statewide, top 44%, 2,059 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 59% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,477 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,653
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -9.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-37,449
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-45,732
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95240

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $459/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$555
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,105

Max offer price $174,477

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-29	+0% $-82	+5% $-136	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-161	+0% $-82	+5% $-3	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-34	base $-82	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
835 W Harney Ln Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$2,195	$2.61	0d	7	0.13mi
321 W Century Blvd Apt 30 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	570	$1,295	$2.27	25d	1	0.37mi
1826 S Hutchins St Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	727	$1,750	$2.41	0d	3	0.50mi
123 Adobe Ct Lodi, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	25d	1	0.56mi
1720 S Hutchins St Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	780	$2,050	$2.63	0d	1	0.61mi
1311 W Century Blvd #42 Lodi, CA	2.0	2.0	985	$1,950	$1.98	5d	1	0.68mi
2890 S Stockton St Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$3,495	$3.74	0d	3	0.71mi
445 Almond Dr Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	756	$1,725	$2.28	21d	3	1.09mi
445 Almond Dr Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	756	$1,750	$2.31	25d	3	1.09mi
1819 S Cherokee Ln #13 Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	45d	1	1.09mi
1701 S Mills Ave Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	783	$2,225	$2.84	0d	6	1.20mi
1516 Sylvan Way Lodi, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,338	$2.34	0d	4	1.35mi
200 E Vine St Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,195	$1.91	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $555 · $6,660/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurityparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2004-03-22
   soldstatus $135,000
2. 2001-03-07
   soldstatus $58,000
3. 1996-04-25
   soldstatus $54,500
4. 1990-11-09
   soldstatus $57,000
5. 1990-11-09
   soldstatus $57,000
6. 1987-05-14
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $459 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$977/yr (+$81/mo · 212.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$459
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − HOA: −$6,660
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$955
• After-tax cash flow: $-32/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lodi, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 78,944
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,517
• Household income: $82,137
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1918.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 35% Two or more races 26% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -469.68%
• Current HPI: 320.685
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+350.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2004-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 1990-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1990-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1987-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $459 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.