8135 S Smoketree Ln

Willow Valley, AZ 86440

$255,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,445 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Pending · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$9
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-1,000/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (29.4% below list).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#170 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Colorado River Union High School District (4381) (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #213 of 249 in AZ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Camp Mohave Elementary School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 375 students, 66% FRL); Mohave Valley Junior High School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 448 students, 55% FRL); River Valley High School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #287 of 381 statewide, top 76%, 545 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $255k implies a 325% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?