3858 SW 153rd Pl

Kendall West, FL 33185

$440,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Built 1997 · Townhouse · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,093/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$135
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-318/mo
• Annual: $-3,815/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $123,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (29.7% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $309k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#255 in FL, #4,028 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $440k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Kendall West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.