3858 SW 153rd Pl · Kendall West, FL 33185

$440,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Townhouse public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1997 $135/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a 2-story townhouse in Caribe Lakes featuring: 2 bedrooms( one of the bedrooms is on the first floor)/2 bathrooms, utilty room with washer & dryer, tiled through-out except in bedrooms and stairs, fenced patio and in walking distan ce to to open green area and lake. Show and sell today. Please, call for combination.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Private fenced patio
• Playground areas

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE FENCED PATIO
• IN UNIT LAUNDRY ROOM
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACES
• 24/7 SECURITY
• PLAYGROUND AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered; Pets allowed with restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association fee includes security; Community amenities: basketball court, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Guest parking; Two or more parking spaces
• Security: Complex fenced; Security guard; Security included in association fee
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: 2-story property; Under construction
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Fenced property; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor entry; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Kendall West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#255 in FL, #4,028 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $440k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,329 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.8% appreciation · 5.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-8,918
• Equity at exit: $145,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $75,419
• Equity at exit: $190,071

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33185

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,631/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,496

Max offer price $383,832

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3810 SW 153rd Pl Miami, FL	3.0	2.5	1255	$2,950	$2.35	22d	1	0.05mi
3855 SW 153rd Ct Miami, FL	2.0	2.5	1220	$2,500	$2.05	24d	1	0.07mi
3773 SW 153rd Ct #3773 Miami, FL	3.0	2.5	1220	$3,300	$2.70	3d	1	0.08mi
3748 SW 153rd Pl Unit West Miami, FL	3.0	2.5	1220	$3,100	$2.54	24d	1	0.10mi
15241 SW 37th Ter Miami, FL	2.0	2.5	1345	$3,000	$2.23	24d	1	0.20mi
3157 SW 153rd Ct #3157 Miami, FL	2.0	2.5	1150	$2,750	$2.39	24d	1	0.45mi
15272 SW 46th Ln Unit HR66 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	885	$2,550	$2.88	12d	1	0.72mi
15272 SW 46th Ln Unit HR66 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	885	$2,550	$2.88	8d	1	0.72mi
15205 SW 48th Ter Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	882	$2,550	$2.89	22d	1	0.76mi
4885 SW 152nd Pl Unit D95 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	22d	1	0.76mi
4832 SW 152nd Ct Unit G34 Miami, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$2,100	$2.96	24d	1	0.78mi
15090 SW 49th Ln Unit H-104 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	885	$2,500	$2.82	24d	1	0.82mi
14980 SW 48th Ter Unit 28F Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1070	$3,200	$2.99	4d	1	0.84mi
14980 SW 48th Ter Unit 28F Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1070	$3,200	$2.99	3d	1	0.84mi
15065 SW 49th Ln Unit H109 Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	885	$2,600	$2.94	11d	1	0.85mi
4840 SW 149th Ct Unit 16F Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1070	$3,000	$2.80	12d	1	0.87mi
4840 SW 149th Ct Unit 16F Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1070	$3,000	$2.80	24d	1	0.87mi
4530 SW 143rd Pl Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$3,450	$2.56	3d	1	1.03mi
4530 SW 143rd Pl Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$3,450	$2.56	14d	1	1.03mi
16303 SW 44th Ter Unit 16303 Miami, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,300	$2.36	8d	1	1.04mi
4533 SW 143rd Pl Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1148	$3,250	$2.83	24d	1	1.04mi
4604 SW 164th Pl Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$3,300	$2.24	24d	1	1.31mi
4760 SW 166th Ct Miami, FL	3.0	2.0	1327	$2,900	$2.19	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $440,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $440,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $440,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $440,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $445,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $445,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    price $445,000
15. 2026-03-17
    listed $450,000 Active
16. 2010-03-11
    soldstatus $116,500 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a 2-story townhouse in Caribe Lakes featuring: 2 bedrooms( one of the bedrooms is on the first floor)/2 bathrooms, utilty room with washer & dryer, tiled through-out except in bedrooms and stairs, fenced patio and in walking distan ce to to open green area and lake. Show and sell today. Please, call for combination.

17. 2005-10-07
    soldstatus $240,000
18. 1999-09-09
    soldstatus $85,600
19. 1997-03-25
    soldstatus $85,000
20. 1997-03-01
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,652 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,021/yr (+$168/mo · 123.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$1,631
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,970
• − Management: −$2,970
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$11,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,812
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kendall West

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #4028

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living C Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,555
• Household income: $114,206
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 396.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 45% White 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 52% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 54% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 13% English-only · Spanish 82% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.80%
• Current HPI: 572.21
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.36%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+423.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $445,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $450,000 MARMLS
• 2010-03-11 Sold (MLS) $116,500 MARMLS
• 2005-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $85,600 Public Records
• 1997-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,631 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.