199 Chestnut St

Garyville, LA 70076

$82,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,357/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $518/mo
• Annual: $6,212/yr
• Cap rate: 13.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.05%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $22,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#154 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• St. John The Baptist Parish (suburban): math 13% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #68 of 98 in LA (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 61 units permitted in St. John the Baptist Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. John the Baptist County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.