199 Chestnut St · Garyville, LA 70076

$82,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 110 Days on market

Built 1968 $55/sqft · 37% below area Est $131k · 37% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to SELL!!!! Just Under 100K *Some cleaning & Move right in- update as you go while you make this house your home OR purchase an investment property* Non Flood zone!!! All Brick Solid House located in tight knit community. *Spacious Living Room / Fenced backyard *Central Air/ Heat * Bedrooms 2 bath with a formal living room & extra room that could serve as an office, den, hobby room OR whatever your heart desires *Being Sold AS-IS - Cash & Conventional financing. *House partially cleared out. House was built & had the same owners the entire time!!! Nice Size Yard

Key facts

• Central air heat
• Non flood zone
• Extra room

Tags

• NON FLOOD ZONE
• ALL BRICK SOLID HOUSE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• CENTRAL AIR HEAT
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• EXTRA ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#154 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• St. John The Baptist Parish (suburban): math 13% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #68 of 98 in LA (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 61 units permitted in St. John the Baptist Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• St. John the Baptist County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,620 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.05%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,910
• List price: $82,000
• Delta: -37.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
181 Marigold St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+13%)	21mo	$144,700	$85	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $42,860
• Equity at exit: $36,871

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $106,405
• Equity at exit: $56,822

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70076

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,087/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $702

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $541	+0% $518	+5% $494	+10% $471
Rent	-10% $410	-5% $464	+0% $518	+5% $571	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $559	-0.5pp $538	base $518	+0.5pp $496	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $82,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $82,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $82,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $82,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $82,000 Active 88 DOM
17. 2026-04-26
    price $82,000 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Priced to SELL!!!! Just Under 100K * Some cleaning & Move right in- update as you go while you make this house your home OR purchase an investment property * Non Flood zone!!! All Brick Solid House located in tight knit community. * Spacious Living Room / Fenced backyard * Central Air/ Heat * Bedrooms 2 bath with a formal living room & extra room that could serve as an office, den, hobby room OR whatever your heart desires * Being Sold AS-IS - Cash & Conventional financing. * House partially cleared out. House was built & had the same owners the entire time!!! Nice Size Yard

18. 2026-04-26
    price $82,000 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Priced to SELL!!!! Just Under 100K * Some cleaning & Move right in- update as you go while you make this house your home OR purchase an investment property * Non Flood zone!!! All Brick Solid House located in tight knit community. * Spacious Living Room / Fenced backyard * Central Air/ Heat * Bedrooms 2 bath with a formal living room & extra room that could serve as an office, den, hobby room OR whatever your heart desires * Being Sold AS-IS - Cash & Conventional financing. * House partially cleared out. House was built & had the same owners the entire time!!! Nice Size Yard

19. 2026-03-04
    listed $99,900 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Priced to SELL!!!! Just Under 100K * Some cleaning & Move right in- update as you go while you make this house your home OR purchase an investment property * Non Flood zone!!! All Brick Solid House located in tight knit community. * Spacious Living Room / Fenced backyard * Central Air/ Heat * Bedrooms 2 bath with a formal living room & extra room that could serve as an office, den, hobby room OR whatever your heart desires * Being Sold AS-IS - Cash & Conventional financing. * House partially cleared out. House was built & had the same owners the entire time!!! Nice Size Yard

20. 2026-03-04
    listed $99,900 Active 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Priced to SELL!!!! Just Under 100K * Some cleaning & Move right in- update as you go while you make this house your home OR purchase an investment property * Non Flood zone!!! All Brick Solid House located in tight knit community. * Spacious Living Room / Fenced backyard * Central Air/ Heat * Bedrooms 2 bath with a formal living room & extra room that could serve as an office, den, hobby room OR whatever your heart desires * Being Sold AS-IS - Cash & Conventional financing. * House partially cleared out. House was built & had the same owners the entire time!!! Nice Size Yard

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,087 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,087 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$1,087
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $5,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,250
• After-tax cash flow: $4,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. John The Baptist Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201530
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -39.00%
• Median HH income: $50,280
• Composite: 17.07/100
• National rank: #9120
• State rank: #68 of 98 in LA

Livability — Garyville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #13042

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garyville, LA
• City population: 2,045
• Population (ZIP): 132

Population outlook (St. John the Baptist County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,972 people
• By 2030: 39,295 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 35,902 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 32,988 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 28,661 · -30.0%
• By 2100: 26,456 · -35.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 100%

Political lean MEDSL · St. John the Baptist

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.1) · D 64.0% · R 34.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.9pp toward D · 2008: 16.2pp · 2024: 29.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.1 2020: D+28.2 2016: D+24.5 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+16.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $82,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $82,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-04 Listed $99,900 GSREIN
• 2026-03-04 Listed $99,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,087 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.