7004 Boulevard E Unit A38

Guttenberg, NJ 07093

$429,000F

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,550 sqft · Built 1977 · Condo · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$781
• HOA: −$1,925
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$849
• Net cashflow: $-1,763/mo
• Annual: $-21,158/yr
• Cap rate: 1.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.95%
• DSCR: 0.25
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $429k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (59.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $404k (5.8% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($390k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (59.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#51 in NJ, #1,253 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Guttenberg School District (suburban): math 10% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #435 of 472 in NJ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anna L. Klein (math 10% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 949 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 48% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 447 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $290k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 2.3% in Guttenberg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $4,042/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.