534 Main St

Lykens, PA 17048

$138,500B+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1899 · SingleFamily · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax + insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $365/mo
• Annual: $4,378/yr
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.01%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $38,780

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $292 of equity ($958 loan paydown + $-666 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#969 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Upper Dauphin Area SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #259 of 539 in PA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Upper Dauphin Area El Sch (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #586 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 399 students, 52% FRL); Upper Dauphin Area Ms (math 25% / reading 52%, grade F, #275 of 512 statewide, top 55%, 312 students, 48% FRL); Upper Dauphin Area Hs (math 77%, 343 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 32% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $138k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.