534 Main St · Lykens, PA 17048

$138,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1899 4,356 sqft lot Est $176k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED TO $61,900!! VERY AFFORDABLE SEMI IN DOWN TOWN LYKENS. HOME WITH TONS OF OLD WORLD CHARM AND CHARACTER. FEATURES: DOUBLE LIVING ROOM, FLORIDA ROOM, FORMAL DINING ROOM W/ FANTASTIC BUILT-INS AND MOLDING, EAT IN KITCHEN, ENCLOSED SCREENED BACK PORCH, AND 2 CAR GARAGE WITH ALLEY ENTRANCE. VERY NICE, LARGE FENCED REAR YARD. ALL APPLIANCES/W & D CONVEY PLUS A 1 YR HOME WARRANTY. ROOF OVER KITCHEN/SCREEN PORCH JUST REPLACED.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1899
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#969 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Upper Dauphin Area SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #259 of 539 in PA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Upper Dauphin Area El Sch (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #586 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 399 students, 52% FRL); Upper Dauphin Area Ms (math 25% / reading 52%, grade F, #275 of 512 statewide, top 55%, 312 students, 48% FRL); Upper Dauphin Area Hs (math 77%, 343 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 32% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $292 of equity ($958 loan paydown + $-666 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $138k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,189 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.01%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,000
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
433 S 2nd St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,598 (-0%)	7mo	$154,500	$97	86
454 S 2nd St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-0%)	10mo	$174,900	$110	79
422 North St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (+2%)	2mo	$287,000	$175	78
711 Main St	0.30mi	4/1.5	1,664 (+4%)	4mo	$222,000	$133	76
767 Main St	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,603 (+0%)	11mo	$120,000	$75	66
312 Center St	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,575 (-2%)	1mo	$228,100	$145	61
247 North St	0.35mi	4/1.0	1,720 (+8%)	22mo	$187,000	$109	50
342 Railroad St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+8%)	14mo	$260,000	$150	48
183 Pottsville St	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,714 (+7%)	16mo	$190,000	$111	38
307 Pottsville St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,780 (+11%)	9mo	$140,900	$79	32
217 Walnut St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,744 (+9%)	21mo	$85,000	$49	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $16,122
• Equity at exit: $36,916

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $58,868
• Equity at exit: $41,820

Cash invested: $38,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17048

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,728/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,245

Max offer price $138,500

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $404	+0% $365	+5% $326	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $297	+0% $365	+5% $432	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $400	base $365	+0.5pp $329	+1.0pp $292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,625
• Closing costs: $4,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-19
   price $138,500
3. 2026-01-10
   listed $140,000 Active
4. 2026-01-09
   historical $140,000
5. 2015-05-04
   soldstatus $60,000
6. 2015-04-30
   soldstatus $60,000 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   REDUCED TO $61,900!! VERY AFFORDABLE SEMI IN DOWN TOWN LYKENS. HOME WITH TONS OF OLD WORLD CHARM AND CHARACTER. FEATURES: DOUBLE LIVING ROOM, FLORIDA ROOM, FORMAL DINING ROOM W/ FANTASTIC BUILT-INS AND MOLDING, EAT IN KITCHEN, ENCLOSED SCREENED BACK PORCH, AND 2 CAR GARAGE WITH ALLEY ENTRANCE. VERY NICE, LARGE FENCED REAR YARD. ALL APPLIANCES/W & D CONVEY PLUS A 1 YR HOME WARRANTY. ROOF OVER KITCHEN/SCREEN PORCH JUST REPLACED.

7. 2015-03-18
   historical 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   REDUCED TO $61,900!! VERY AFFORDABLE SEMI IN DOWN TOWN LYKENS. HOME WITH TONS OF OLD WORLD CHARM AND CHARACTER. FEATURES: DOUBLE LIVING ROOM, FLORIDA ROOM, FORMAL DINING ROOM W/ FANTASTIC BUILT-INS AND MOLDING, EAT IN KITCHEN, ENCLOSED SCREENED BACK PORCH, AND 2 CAR GARAGE WITH ALLEY ENTRANCE. VERY NICE, LARGE FENCED REAR YARD. ALL APPLIANCES/W & D CONVEY PLUS A 1 YR HOME WARRANTY. ROOF OVER KITCHEN/SCREEN PORCH JUST REPLACED.

8. 2014-06-25
   listed $61,900 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   REDUCED TO $61,900!! VERY AFFORDABLE SEMI IN DOWN TOWN LYKENS. HOME WITH TONS OF OLD WORLD CHARM AND CHARACTER. FEATURES: DOUBLE LIVING ROOM, FLORIDA ROOM, FORMAL DINING ROOM W/ FANTASTIC BUILT-INS AND MOLDING, EAT IN KITCHEN, ENCLOSED SCREENED BACK PORCH, AND 2 CAR GARAGE WITH ALLEY ENTRANCE. VERY NICE, LARGE FENCED REAR YARD. ALL APPLIANCES/W & D CONVEY PLUS A 1 YR HOME WARRANTY. ROOF OVER KITCHEN/SCREEN PORCH JUST REPLACED.

9. 2014-05-18
   historical
10. 2013-11-18
    listed $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,728 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,958 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$230/yr (+$19/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,728
• − Insurance: −$1,359
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,638
• − Management: −$1,638
• − Depreciation: −$4,029
• Taxable income: $2,330
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$559
• After-tax cash flow: $3,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Dauphin Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224360
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,201
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4012
• State rank: #259 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lykens

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #10571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lykens, PA
• Population (ZIP): 3,801

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 4% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 241.7628
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+68.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $138,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-09 Coming Soon $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-30 Sold (MLS) $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-03-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-06-25 Listed $61,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-05-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-18 Listed $82,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,728 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.