2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,248 sqft ·
Built 1984
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 18 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,837/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$943
Tax + insurance
−$277
HOA
−$70
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$386
Net cashflow
$161/mo
Annual
$1,930/yr
Cap rate
7.37%
Cash-on-cash
3.83%
DSCR
1.17
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$50,372
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $148 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Z4YXNG77SE141F
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29