1204 2nd St

Larsen Bay, AK 99624

$125,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Built 1985 · Other · Pending · 441 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,432/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $383/mo
• Annual: $4,597/yr
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.14%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 441 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#71 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Kodiak Island Borough School District (town): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #11 of 21 in AK (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Kodiak Island Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 441 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.