1204 2nd St · Larsen Bay, AK 99624

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Other public records · 441 Days on market

Built 1985 0.90 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Unique opportunity to own a home in Larsen Bay and viable salmon fishing Beach Seine permit & accessories. Skiffs, seines, totes, anchors & all related gear the whole shebang.

Key facts

• 0.9 acre lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 441 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#71 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Kodiak Island Borough School District (town): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #11 of 21 in AK (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Kodiak Island Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 441 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 441 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.14%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $39,409
• Equity at exit: $56,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $106,046
• Equity at exit: $86,619

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99624

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,432 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $483/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $947

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $418	+0% $383	+5% $348	+10% $312
Rent	-10% $270	-5% $327	+0% $383	+5% $440	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $415	base $383	+0.5pp $351	+1.0pp $318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-20
   status Active
3. 2026-01-20
   price $125,000
4. 2025-08-01
   status Active
5. 2025-01-14
   listed $175,000 Active
6. 2010-02-01
   listed $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$502/yr (+$42/mo · 104.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$483
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,684
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$644
• After-tax cash flow: $3,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kodiak Island Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200480
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $68,164
• Composite: 34.96/100
• National rank: #5061
• State rank: #11 of 21 in AK

Livability — Larsen Bay

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #17938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Larsen Bay, AK
• Population (ZIP): 108

Population outlook (Kodiak Island County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,275 people
• By 2030: 14,375 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 14,483 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 14,425 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 14,505 · +1.6%
• By 2100: 14,311 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.83)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Hispanic / Latino 25% Native American 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 17% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Kodiak Island

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-01-20 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $125,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $175,000 AKMLS
• 2010-02-01 Listed $140,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $483 · -5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.