1 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,293 sqft ·
Built 1994
· Manufactured
· Active
· 336 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,500/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$488
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$525
Net cashflow
$900/mo
Annual
$10,795/yr
Cap rate
18.99%
Cash-on-cash
45.36%
DSCR
3.02
1% rule
2.94%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $900 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: kitchen cabinets
— dated and in need of updating
Moderate: bathroom fixtures
— dated and in need of updating
CashFlowRE · CFR-Z5DFYA84P797AG
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29