1 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,293 sqft ·
Built 1994
· Manufactured
· Active
· 473 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,466/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$435
Tax + insurance
−$138
HOA
−$488
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$308
Net cashflow
$97/mo
Annual
$1,162/yr
Cap rate
7.69%
Cash-on-cash
5.00%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
1.77%
Cash to close
$23,240
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
It's been on market 473 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Nikolaus Homestead Elementary School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #371 of 1,109 statewide, top 34%, 389 students, 42% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
Market conditions: 1380 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 473 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: kitchen cabinets
— dated and in need of updating
Moderate: bathroom fixtures
— dated and in need of updating
CashFlowRE · CFR-Z5DFYA84P797AG
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29