2018 S 3rd Dr

Phoenix, AZ 85003

$199,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 965 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,141/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $316/mo
• Annual: $3,796/yr
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Phoenix Union Bioscience High School (math 74% / reading 90%, grade A, #6 of 381 statewide, top 1%, 370 students, 65% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 82% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+70 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Phoenix Union High School District (4286) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.