2018 S 3rd Dr · Phoenix, AZ 85003

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 965 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1944 9,262 sqft lot Est $266k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

rime Opportunity in the Heart of Central Phoenix! This well-cared-for 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on an R3-zoned lot, offering exceptional flexibility for single-family living or future multi-family development. Whether you're an investor, builder, or homeowner looking for long-term potential, this property presents incredible possibilities. Located directly across from the I-17 freeway and just minutes from Downtown Phoenix, the accessibility and visibility are unmatched. Sky Harbor International Airport is approximately 12 minutes away, making this an especially desirable location for future growth and redevelopment. With no HOA and a home that has been very well maintained, this is a

Key facts

• R3 zoned lot
• 9,262 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• R3 ZONED LOT
• ACCESSIBILITY AND VISIBILITY
• ACROSS FROM I-17 FREEWAY
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN PHOENIX

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Phoenix Union Bioscience High School (math 74% / reading 90%, grade A, #6 of 381 statewide, top 1%, 370 students, 65% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 82% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+70 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Phoenix Union High School District (4286) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,803 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,340
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2018 S 3rd Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	965 (0%)	1mo	$19,900	$21	99
502 W Apache St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,012 (+5%)	2mo	$154,000	$152	78
601 W Mohave St	0.20mi	3/1.0	954 (-1%)	17mo	$275,000	$288	74
329 W Mohave St	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	950 (-2%)	18mo	$300,000	$316	69
743 W Pima St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-7%)	1mo	$180,000	$200	64
1809 S 7th Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	9mo	$185,000	$214	60
1201 W Pima St #1	0.59mi	3/1.0	945 (-2%)	14mo	$257,500	$272	57
1333 W Mohave St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,024 (+6%)	9mo	$300,000	$293	46
1341 W Apache St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+14%)	0mo	$305,000	$276	39
1317 W Mohave St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	17mo	$298,000	$345	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,766
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-40,996
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85003

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $161	+0% $93	+5% $24	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $19	+0% $93	+5% $166	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $193	-0.5pp $143	base $93	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $-11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
620 W Apache St #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	3d	1	0.21mi
903 W Yuma St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	2d	1	0.54mi
1146 W Apache St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	650	$1,475	$2.27	3d	1	0.58mi
410 W Hadley St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	20d	1	0.71mi
402 W Lincoln St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,234	$2.50	2d	20	0.92mi
1507 W Tonto St Apt 1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	810	$1,450	$1.79	10d	1	0.98mi
1050 S 16th Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,360	$1.70	2d	1	1.09mi
23 E Illini St Unit 212 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	925	$1,650	$1.78	2d	1	1.25mi
1709 W Sherman St Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	2d	1	1.26mi
1725 W Sherman St Unit A Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	590	$1,895	$3.21	2d	1	1.30mi
222 E Jefferson St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.5	1135	$4,225	$3.72	2d	50	1.34mi
188 E Jefferson St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	944	$3,595	$3.81	2d	26	1.36mi
1920 W Tonto St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	4d	1	1.43mi
114 W Adams St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,600	$2.59	18d	2	1.43mi
114 W Adams St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,495	$2.49	2d	2	1.43mi
200 W Monroe St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	731	$2,415	$3.30	2d	45	1.50mi
44 W Monroe St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1178	$3,287	$2.79	2d	13	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2026-03-31
   soldstatus Closed
4. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-25
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,187
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$525
• After-tax cash flow: $1,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,875
• Household income: $60,461
• Rent vs Own: 72.2% rent · 27.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1340.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 18% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.14%
• Current HPI: 385.5979
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $199,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Sold (MLS) — ARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $199,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $355 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.