207 La Caverna St

Van Horn, TX 79855

$139,000C

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,158 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,302/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $170/mo
• Annual: $2,036/yr
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.23%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (6.3% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,070 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Culberson County-Allamoore ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,070 of 1,141 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Culberson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Culberson County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 3→7/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.