207 La Caverna St · Van Horn, TX 79855

$139,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1950 10,497 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,070 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Culberson County-Allamoore ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,070 of 1,141 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Culberson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Culberson County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 3→7/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,250 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.23%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $72,166
• Equity at exit: $110,010

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $201,550
• Equity at exit: $222,711

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79855

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,088

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $139,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,500 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,500 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,500 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,500 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,500 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,500 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,500 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,500 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-03-23
    listed $169,500 Active
17. 2010-07-21
    soldstatus
18. 1992-09-04
    soldstatus
19. 1992-09-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $870 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,674/yr (+$139/mo · 192.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 3 d/yr ≥100°F today · 7 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$64
• After-tax cash flow: $2,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Culberson County-Allamoore ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,898
• Composite: 24.22/100
• National rank: #13136
• State rank: #1070 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Van Horn

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1070
• US rank: #18971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Van Horn, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,159

Population outlook (Culberson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,952 people
• By 2030: 1,793 · -8.1%
• By 2040: 1,518 · -22.2%
• By 2050: 1,279 · -34.5%
• By 2075: 861 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 603 · -69.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 44% White 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 64% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Culberson

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 40.9% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: D+2.7 2016: D+22.8 2012: D+31.1 2008: D+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Current HPI: 119.7418
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $169,500 ODMLS
• 2010-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $870 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.