1010 Pendleton Ln

Strasburg, VA 22657

$299,900F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,240 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-281/mo
• Annual: $-3,369/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#175 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $300k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Strasburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.