1010 Pendleton Ln · Strasburg, VA 22657

$299,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,240 sqft · Townhouse public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2005 2,439 sqft lot $242/sqft · 59% above area Est $280k · 7% over $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three stories of move in ready townhome awaits with fresh paint, new carpet and vinyl, ensuites in two bedrooms, third bedroom on entry level with full bath plus living area. Walkout to yard backing to trees. Kitchen has brand new appliances so all you need is to add your furniture and decor and it will be ready to go! Owner is selling As Is!.

Key facts

• $60 HOA
• Built 2005
• Listed 44 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Strasburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#175 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $300k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,322
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: 6.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
577 Ash St	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,240 (0%)	0mo	$260,000	$210	58
573 Branch St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-3%)	21mo	$279,900	$233	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-60,002
• Equity at exit: $51,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-69,960
• Equity at exit: $38,109

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22657

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,354

Max offer price $250,304

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-196	+0% $-281	+5% $-366	+10% $-451
Rent	-10% $-439	-5% $-360	+0% $-281	+5% $-202	+10% $-123
Rate	-1.0pp $-130	-0.5pp $-204	base $-281	+0.5pp $-358	+1.0pp $-438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
389 Thompson St Strasburg, VA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,999	$2.22	24d	1	0.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-04
   historical Active Under Contract 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Three stories of move in ready townhome awaits with fresh paint, new carpet and vinyl, ensuites in two bedrooms, third bedroom on entry level with full bath plus living area. Walkout to yard backing to trees. Kitchen has brand new appliances so all you need is to add your furniture and decor and it will be ready to go! Owner is selling As Is!.

2. 2026-04-14
   price $299,900 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Three stories of move in ready townhome awaits with fresh paint, new carpet and vinyl, ensuites in two bedrooms, third bedroom on entry level with full bath plus living area. Walkout to yard backing to trees. Kitchen has brand new appliances so all you need is to add your furniture and decor and it will be ready to go! Owner is selling As Is!.

3. 2026-03-22
   listed $309,900 Active 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Three stories of move in ready townhome awaits with fresh paint, new carpet and vinyl, ensuites in two bedrooms, third bedroom on entry level with full bath plus living area. Walkout to yard backing to trees. Kitchen has brand new appliances so all you need is to add your furniture and decor and it will be ready to go! Owner is selling As Is!.

4. 2026-03-19
   historical $309,900 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Three stories of move in ready townhome awaits with fresh paint, new carpet and vinyl, ensuites in two bedrooms, third bedroom on entry level with full bath plus living area. Walkout to yard backing to trees. Kitchen has brand new appliances so all you need is to add your furniture and decor and it will be ready to go! Owner is selling As Is!.

5. 2012-12-19
   soldstatus $131,000
6. 2012-12-17
   soldstatus $131,000 Sold 338-char remark

   Show marketing remark (338 chars)

   Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

7. 2012-12-17
   soldstatus $131,000

   Show marketing remark (338 chars)

   Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

8. 2012-09-27
   price $135,000 338-char remark

   Show marketing remark (338 chars)

   Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

9. 2012-09-25
   status Contingent (No Kick Out) 338-char remark

   Show marketing remark (338 chars)

   Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

10. 2012-09-24
    historical
11. 2012-09-10
    status Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

12. 2012-09-07
    status Contingent (No Kick Out) 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

13. 2012-08-31
    status Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

14. 2012-07-30
    status Contingent (No Kick Out) 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

15. 2012-07-19
    price $132,000 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

16. 2012-07-12
    price $134,000 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

17. 2012-06-08
    listed $136,000 Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

18. 2012-06-08
    listed $135,000

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Nice 3 level townhouse in Hupps Ridge, Shenandoah County, Strasburg, VA close to I-81 & downtown historic Strasburg. 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths. Backs to trees. Main level bedroom and full bath, family room. Living room, huge kitchen and powder room on 2nd level, bedrooms on upper level. Fresh coat of paint, freshly cleaned carpeting.

19. 2006-06-20
    historical
20. 2006-05-19
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,232/yr (+$103/mo · 100.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$8,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,117
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — Strasburg

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #5404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Strasburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 12,047

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.48%
• Current HPI: 368.0984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+122.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $309,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Coming Soon $309,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2012-12-17 Sold (MLS) $131,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-12-17 Sold (MLS) $131,000 MRIS
• 2012-09-27 Price Changed $135,000 MRIS
• 2012-09-25 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-09-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-09-10 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-09-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-08-31 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-07-30 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-07-19 Price Changed $132,000 MRIS
• 2012-07-12 Price Changed $134,000 MRIS
• 2012-06-08 Listed $136,000 MRIS
• 2012-06-08 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-06-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-05-19 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,228 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.