6 Short Ln

Haviland, NY 12538

$149,888B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,440/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$676
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-421/yr
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.19%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $41,969

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-421/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#712 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.2% in Haviland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: exterior siding — Some discoloration
• Minor: interior walls — Some discoloration
• Minor: flooring — Some wear
• Minor: bathrooms — Standard fixtures, some wear
• Minor: kitchen — Standard appliances, some wear
• Minor: exterior windows — Standard windows, some wear