6 Short Ln · Haviland, NY 12538

$149,888

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition $500/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Hidden Brook Estates, a lovely co-op community nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac surrounded by wooded trees and scenic wetlands. Enjoy the beauty of nature right in your backyard, with frequent sightings of deer, coyotes, and snapping turtles. This spacious 28’ x 52’ manufactured home (1,456 sq ft), built by Holiday Homes in 1986, offers a comfortable and functional layout perfect for everyday living. Featuring vaulted ceilings in the living room, formal dining room with floor-to-ceiling windows and sliding glass doors to deck, and a large eat-in kitchen. Primary bedroom fits a king-size bed and offers a walk-in closet plus two double wide closets. Primary bedroom has a large bathroom with sit-down shower and linen closet. Second bedroom is generously sized with walk-in closet. Hall bath room has new flooring. Laundry room with washer/dryer with door to side yard access. Extra-wide storage closet in laundry room. This home has hot water base board heat. Oversized shed for workshop/storage space. Lot rent $500/month includes taxes, water, sewer, garbage, and snow removal (main road). Owner responsible for lawn care and driveway snow removal. Playground nearby. Cash or mobile home financing only—no conventional financing. Buyer must be approved by Co-op Board. Must be owner-occupied only. Home sold as-is. Home inspection for information purpose. This home spells ‘Home Sweet Home!’ Come and take a look. Use ST app for appts. Why rent when you can own?

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Wooded trees
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• WOODED TREES
• SCENIC WETLANDS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• FLOOR-TO-CEILING WINDOWS
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $149,888 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-421/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.2% in Haviland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#712 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,894 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.19%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,814
• List price: $149,888
• Delta: -15.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Kens Way	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	11mo	$169,888	$126	74
1040 Violet Ave #17	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-4%)	10mo	$132,000	$94	66
34 Kens Way	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	12mo	$149,888	$120	59
67 Carole Ct	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	16mo	$125,700	$101	59
70 Sixth Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	13mo	$200,000	$148	53
54 Fourth Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-14%)	5mo	$209,000	$167	44
20 Cardinal Rd Lot 51	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,620 (+11%)	6mo	$180,000	$111	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-25,916
• Equity at exit: $22,349

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-22,981
• Equity at exit: $12,960

Cash invested: $41,969 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12538

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,440 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,484

Max offer price $144,812

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,472
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
81 Kerry Ct Hyde Park, NY	2.0	1.5	1300	$2,175	$1.67	44d	1	0.64mi
4332 Albany Post Rd Unit 5 Hyde Park, NY	3.0	1.5	1517	$3,000	$1.98	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $500 · $6,000/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapingsnow removal

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,888 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,888 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,888 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,888 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,888 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,888 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,888 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,888 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,888 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,888 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,888 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,888 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,888 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,888 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $149,888 Active 1509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1509 chars)

    Welcome to Hidden Brook Estates, a lovely co-op community nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac surrounded by wooded trees and scenic wetlands. Enjoy the beauty of nature right in your backyard, with frequent sightings of deer, coyotes, and snapping turtles. This spacious 28’ x 52’ manufactured home (1,456 sq ft), built by Holiday Homes in 1986, offers a comfortable and functional layout perfect for everyday living. Featuring vaulted ceilings in the living room, formal dining room with floor-to-ceiling windows and sliding glass doors to deck, and a large eat-in kitchen. Primary bedroom fits a king-size bed and offers a walk-in closet plus two double wide closets. Primary bedroom has a large bathroom with sit-down shower and linen closet. Second bedroom is generously sized with walk-in closet. Hall bath room has new flooring. Laundry room with washer/dryer with door to side yard access. Extra-wide storage closet in laundry room. This home has hot water base board heat. Oversized shed for workshop/storage space. Lot rent $500/month includes taxes, water, sewer, garbage, and snow removal (main road). Owner responsible for lawn care and driveway snow removal. Playground nearby. Cash or mobile home financing only—no conventional financing. Buyer must be approved by Co-op Board. Must be owner-occupied only. Home sold as-is. Home inspection for information purpose. This home spells ‘Home Sweet Home!’ Come and take a look. Use ST app for appts. Why rent when you can own?

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,396
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$5,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,360
• Taxable loss: −$2,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$547
• After-tax cash flow: $127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Some discoloration
• Minor interior walls — Some discoloration
• Minor flooring — Some wear
• Minor bathrooms — Standard fixtures, some wear
• Minor kitchen — Standard appliances, some wear
• Minor exterior windows — Standard windows, some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and increases value
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and increases value
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, increasing value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
flooring · Some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathrooms · Standard fixtures, some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen · Standard appliances, some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior windows · Standard windows, some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$3,000–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and increases value ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and increases value ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, increasing value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hyde Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615180
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,932
• Composite: 46.59/100
• National rank: #2421
• State rank: #316 of 590 in NY

Livability — Haviland

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #712
• US rank: #13550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haviland, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,104

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.47%
• Current HPI: 272.998
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $149,888 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid