302 Eagle Ln

South Toledo Bend, TX 75932

$105,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $981/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $50/mo
• Annual: $597/yr
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($597/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (6.5% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Burkeville ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #966 of 1,141 in TX (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP.
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — The siding is peeling and damaged, requiring replacement
• Major: roof — The roof is in poor condition, with visible damage and potential leaks
• Major: flooring — The flooring is damaged and uneven, requiring replacement
• Major: interior walls/paint — The interior walls are in poor condition, with peeling paint and visible damage
• Major: HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and in need of replacement
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in poor condition, requiring trimming and clearing