302 Eagle Ln · South Toledo Bend, TX 75932

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1985 Poor condition 0.66 ac lot $99/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Overlooking a seasonal cove of Toledo Bend, this unique property presents a rare opportunity to own a piece of scenic beauty and lake charm. These two lots features gently sloping terrain that enhances the views towards the cove and the adjoining wooded property by creating a setting that homeowners who desire having natural scenery would be looking to buy. The property has been partly thinned, leaving both open spaces and a mixture of mature hardwoods and pines to provide shade and seasonal visual appeal. There is also an apx 1578 sqft 3B/2B home that sits on an elevated view of the cove that just needs a buyer with vision to transform it to a comfortable lakeside retreat. Situated on UNRESTRICTED corner lots, the setting ensures limited traffic which is inviting for weekend getaways or for a permanent retirement home. Whether you envision a full remodel or a custom new build, these lots offer the ideal foundation for owning your Toledo Bend retreat!

Key facts

• Mature hardwoods
• Elevated view
• 0.66 acre lot

Tags

• GENTLY SLOPING TERRAIN
• MATURE HARDWOODS
• ELEVATED VIEW
• UNRESTRICTED CORNER LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($597/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Burkeville ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #966 of 1,141 in TX (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,477
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -74.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $49,768
• Equity at exit: $83,316

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $142,307
• Equity at exit: $168,882

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75932

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $105,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-03-17
    listed $110,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Overlooking a seasonal cove of Toledo Bend, this unique property presents a rare opportunity to own a piece of scenic beauty and lake charm. These two lots features gently sloping terrain that enhances the views towards the cove and the adjoining wooded property by creating a setting that homeowners who desire having natural scenery would be looking to buy. The property has been partly thinned, leaving both open spaces and a mixture of mature hardwoods and pines to provide shade and seasonal visual appeal. There is also an apx 1578 sqft 3B/2B home that sits on an elevated view of the cove that just needs a buyer with vision to transform it to a comfortable lakeside retreat. Situated on UNRESTRICTED corner lots, the setting ensures limited traffic which is inviting for weekend getaways or for a permanent retirement home. Whether you envision a full remodel or a custom new build, these lots offer the ideal foundation for owning your Toledo Bend retreat!

19. 2026-03-17
    listed $110,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Overlooking a seasonal cove of Toledo Bend, this unique property presents a rare opportunity to own a piece of scenic beauty and lake charm. These two lots features gently sloping terrain that enhances the views towards the cove and the adjoining wooded property by creating a setting that homeowners who desire having natural scenery would be looking to buy. The property has been partly thinned, leaving both open spaces and a mixture of mature hardwoods and pines to provide shade and seasonal visual appeal. There is also an apx 1578 sqft 3B/2B home that sits on an elevated view of the cove that just needs a buyer with vision to transform it to a comfortable lakeside retreat. Situated on UNRESTRICTED corner lots, the setting ensures limited traffic which is inviting for weekend getaways or for a permanent retirement home. Whether you envision a full remodel or a custom new build, these lots offer the ideal foundation for owning your Toledo Bend retreat!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$942
• − Management: −$942
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$1,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$274
• After-tax cash flow: $871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and renovations to bring it up to a livable condition. The home's poor condition and lack of maintenance will significantly impact its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — The siding is peeling and damaged, requiring replacement
• Major roof — The roof is in poor condition, with visible damage and potential leaks
• Major flooring — The flooring is damaged and uneven, requiring replacement
• Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls are in poor condition, with peeling paint and visible damage
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and in need of replacement
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in poor condition, requiring trimming and clearing

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding replacement — A new exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value
• Both roof replacement — A new roof will prevent leaks and improve the home's value
• Both flooring replacement — A new flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and increase its value
• Both landscaping and clearing — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · The siding is peeling and damaged, requiring replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof is in poor condition, with visible damage and potential leaks	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring is damaged and uneven, requiring replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The interior walls are in poor condition, with peeling paint and visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · The HVAC system appears to be old and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and in poor condition, requiring trimming and clearing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding replacement — A new exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value ↑
• Both roof replacement — A new roof will prevent leaks and improve the home's value ↑
• Both flooring replacement — A new flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and increase its value ↑
• Both landscaping and clearing — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkeville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,753
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #11672
• State rank: #966 of 1141 in TX

Livability — South Toledo Bend

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1431
• US rank: #24460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Toledo Bend, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,339

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Hungarian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.49%
• Current HPI: 214.4428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $110,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $110,000 Deep East Texas MLS