412 County Home Rd

Warrenton, NC 27589

$225,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,376/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-296/mo
• Annual: $-3,549/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (38.8% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#250 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Warren County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #174 of 178 in NC (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mariam Boyd Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,405 of 1,410 statewide, top 100%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Warren Early College High (math 70% / reading 64%, grade B, #142 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 115 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 79% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 255 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $225k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.