412 County Home Rd · Warrenton, NC 27589

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2005 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 412 County Home Rd in Warrenton, NC -- a place where you can truly slow down, breathe, and enjoy the beauty of your own PRIVATE retreat WITH 10 ACRES!! Tucked away in a peaceful setting, this property offers the kind of PRIVACY AND FREEDOM that's getting harder to find. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home provides a comfortable and inviting layout, with FRESH PAINT in select areas and a NEW front door that warmly welcomes you home each day. It's a space where you can unwind, gather, and create lasting memories. Step outside and experience what makes this property so SPECIAL. Picture mornings with coffee in hand on the COVERED PORCH, while the kids play freely, afternoons watching pets ru

Key facts

• 10 acre lot
• 8 parking spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 10-acre lot
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 4 spaces; Open parking with 4 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as a manufactured house
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Fenced yard (chain link); Kennel / dog run; Playground; Shed(s) and additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric, Heat Pump); Central air conditioning (Electric, Heat Pump)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (38.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#250 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Warren County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #174 of 178 in NC (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mariam Boyd Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,405 of 1,410 statewide, top 100%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Warren Early College High (math 70% / reading 64%, grade B, #142 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 115 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 79% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 255 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $225k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,640 (38.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $98,139
• Equity at exit: $196,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $302,274
• Equity at exit: $418,490

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27589

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,313/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,751

Max offer price $172,760

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-168	-5% $-232	+0% $-296	+5% $-359	+10% $-423
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-350	+0% $-296	+5% $-241	+10% $-187
Rate	-1.0pp $-182	-0.5pp $-238	base $-296	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-02
   listed $225,000 Active
2. 2022-09-16
   soldstatus $93,000
3. 2011-12-22
   historical
4. 2011-03-11
   listed $110,000
5. 2010-12-16
   historical
6. 2009-12-18
   listed $115,000
7. 2009-12-06
   historical
8. 2009-06-16
   listed $120,000
9. 2003-10-08
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$532/yr (+$44/mo · 40.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,313
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$7,713
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,851
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704740
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,433
• Composite: 14.62/100
• National rank: #9409
• State rank: #174 of 178 in NC

Livability — Warrenton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #11101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing D+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,763

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,664 people
• By 2030: 17,641 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 15,442 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 13,634 · -27.0%
• By 2075: 10,523 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 7,777 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 27% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 58.8% · R 39.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 39.5pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+25.7 2016: D+33.2 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.64%
• Current HPI: 303.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+650.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $225,000 TMLS
• 2022-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-22 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2011-03-11 Listed $110,000 TMLS
• 2010-12-16 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-12-18 Listed $115,000 TMLS
• 2009-12-06 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-06-16 Listed $120,000 TMLS
• 2003-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,313 · +88.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.