1407 W 40th St

Kearney, NE 68845

$225,000C-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,975 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,194/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $261/mo
• Annual: $3,136/yr
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.98%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (2.5% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in NE, #858 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Kearney Public Schools (town): math 55% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #43 of 111 in NE (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Middle School (math 57% / reading 53%, grade B-, #31 of 128 statewide, top 24%, 577 students, 48% FRL); Kearney High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #138 of 261 statewide, top 53%, 1,629 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Buffalo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Buffalo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.5% in Kearney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.