1407 W 40th St · Kearney, NE 68845

$225,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,975 sqft · Townhouse public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1978 436 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This maintenance-free, meticulously maintained home has a custom feel and has had many updates. There are many custom details including hardwood floors, crown moulding, colonnades, built-in shelving throughout the home, and double-sliding Pella doors with blinds that lead out to a private deck. Many updates including a new Trane air conditioner and furnace, new Bosch dishwasher, new LG washer/dryer set, fresh paint throughout most of the home, and newer carpet in the basement. Large master suite includes a sunroom, walk-in closet, and tile shower. Culligan water softener and filtered drinking water system stays with the home. You will not find a cleaner and more custom unit in this area!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1978
• Listed 28 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,926 total square feet (1,476 above grade, 450 below grade finished)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with one covered space (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse (residential); Two levels; Attached property
• Construction: Built in 1978; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on 2nd floor; Second bedroom on 2nd floor; Third bedroom in basement
• Bathrooms: Three bathrooms total (one full, one three-quarter, one half); Main level bathroom included
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.5% in Kearney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in NE, #858 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Kearney Public Schools (town): math 55% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #43 of 111 in NE (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Middle School (math 57% / reading 53%, grade B-, #31 of 128 statewide, top 24%, 577 students, 48% FRL); Kearney High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #138 of 261 statewide, top 53%, 1,629 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Buffalo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buffalo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $219,394 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.98%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-8,871
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $63,259
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68845

• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,379/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,863

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $325	+0% $261	+5% $198	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $175	+0% $261	+5% $348	+10% $435
Rate	-1.0pp $375	-0.5pp $319	base $261	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2114 University Dr Kearney, NE	2.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,545	$2.49	44d	23	1.36mi
2109 Chancellors Ave Kearney, NE	2.0	2.5	1753	$2,495	$1.42	44d	1	1.38mi
2005 Chancellors Ave Kearney, NE	2.0	2.5	1753	$2,495	$1.42	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $225,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $225,000 New
18. 2021-08-23
    soldstatus $209,900
19. 2021-08-23
    soldstatus $210,000
20. 2021-07-07
    listed $209,900
21. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus $190,000 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    This maintenance-free, meticulously maintained home has a custom feel and has had many updates. There are many custom details including hardwood floors, crown moulding, colonnades, built-in shelving throughout the home, and double-sliding Pella doors with blinds that lead out to a private deck. Many updates including a new Trane air conditioner and furnace, new Bosch dishwasher, new LG washer/dryer set, fresh paint throughout most of the home, and newer carpet in the basement. Large master suite includes a sunroom, walk-in closet, and tile shower. Culligan water softener and filtered drinking water system stays with the home. You will not find a cleaner and more custom unit in this area!

22. 2019-08-29
    soldstatus $190,000
23. 2019-04-23
    listed $199,900 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    This maintenance-free, meticulously maintained home has a custom feel and has had many updates. There are many custom details including hardwood floors, crown moulding, colonnades, built-in shelving throughout the home, and double-sliding Pella doors with blinds that lead out to a private deck. Many updates including a new Trane air conditioner and furnace, new Bosch dishwasher, new LG washer/dryer set, fresh paint throughout most of the home, and newer carpet in the basement. Large master suite includes a sunroom, walk-in closet, and tile shower. Culligan water softener and filtered drinking water system stays with the home. You will not find a cleaner and more custom unit in this area!

24. 2017-05-05
    soldstatus $175,000
25. 2017-05-05
    soldstatus $175,000
26. 2017-02-16
    listed $183,750
27. 2011-10-06
    soldstatus $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,892 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,514/yr (+$126/mo · 63.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,379
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,106
• − Management: −$2,106
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$129
• After-tax cash flow: $3,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kearney Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3172390
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,913
• Composite: 46.61/100
• National rank: #2415
• State rank: #43 of 111 in NE

Livability — Kearney

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #858

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearney, NE
• County: Buffalo County · 20,536 people
• City population: 20,536
• Metro: Kearney, NE
• Population (ZIP): 20,536
• Household income: $76,978
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Buffalo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,980 people
• By 2030: 58,298 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 64,975 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 72,054 · +31.1%
• By 2075: 90,838 · +65.2%
• By 2100: 106,838 · +94.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buffalo

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.9) · D 26.9% · R 71.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -37.5pp · 2024: -44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.9 2020: R+43.4 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+37.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.38%
• Current HPI: 218.8182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.74%
• Metro: Kearney, NE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+80.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $225,000 GPRMLS
• 2021-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-23 Sold (MLS) $209,900 GMNMLS
• 2021-07-07 Listed $209,900 GMNMLS
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $190,000 GMNMLS
• 2019-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-23 Listed $199,900 GMNMLS
• 2017-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-05 Sold (MLS) $175,000 GMNMLS
• 2017-02-16 Listed $183,750 GMNMLS
• 2011-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $124,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,379 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.