2203 Deer Lake Dr

Centerville, TN 37137

$65,000B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1985 · Other · Active · 225 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $929/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $275/mo
• Annual: $3,299/yr
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.12%
• DSCR: 1.81
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($929 rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#62 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Elementary (388 students, 0% FRL); Hickman Co Middle School (math 21% / reading 22%, grade F, #184 of 333 statewide, top 56%, 321 students, 0% FRL); Hickman Co Sr High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 447 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $141; list at $65k implies a 45999% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 1.8% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.