2203 Deer Lake Dr · Centerville, TN 37137

$65,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 672 sqft · Other public records · 225 Days on market

Built 1985 0.53 ac lot $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED! Home and two additional lots, total of 1.5 acres in Hidden Valley Lakes! Steps from the lake and a short walk or ATV ride to the pool, playground and main entrance. These are multi-purpose lots for permanent residence. Well, septic, and propane tank ready to go. Three Bedroom, 1.5 Bathroom home, move in ready. Stove, dishwasher, and laundry included. Furniture negotiable! Gated entrance. HOA and taxes apply for three lots. HVL Bylaws and updates in links. Prefer cash purchase! No owner financing.

Key facts

• Two additional lots
• Gated entrance
• Steps from the lake

Tags

• TWO ADDITIONAL LOTS
• 1.5 ACRES
• STEPS FROM THE LAKE
• SHORT WALK TO THE POOL
• GATED ENTRANCE
• WELL SEPTIC AND PROPANE TANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($929 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 1.8% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#62 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Elementary (388 students, 0% FRL); Hickman Co Middle School (math 21% / reading 22%, grade F, #184 of 333 statewide, top 56%, 321 students, 0% FRL); Hickman Co Sr High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 447 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $141; list at $65k implies a 45999% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.12%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $52,928
• Equity at exit: $58,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.81×
• Total profit: $142,137
• Equity at exit: $126,281

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37137

• Home prices YoY: 13.4%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $581

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $297	+0% $275	+5% $252	+10% $230
Rent	-10% $201	-5% $238	+0% $275	+5% $312	+10% $348
Rate	-1.0pp $308	-0.5pp $291	base $275	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $65,000 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $65,000 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 203 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $75,000 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    REDUCED! Home and two additional lots, total of 1.5 acres in Hidden Valley Lakes! Steps from the lake and a short walk or ATV ride to the pool, playground and main entrance. These are multi-purpose lots for permanent residence. Well, septic, and propane tank ready to go. Three Bedroom, 1.5 Bathroom home, move in ready. Stove, dishwasher, and laundry included. Furniture negotiable! Gated entrance. HOA and taxes apply for three lots. HVL Bylaws and updates in links. Prefer cash purchase! No owner financing.

18. 2026-03-17
    price $80,000 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    REDUCED! Home and two additional lots, total of 1.5 acres in Hidden Valley Lakes! Steps from the lake and a short walk or ATV ride to the pool, playground and main entrance. These are multi-purpose lots for permanent residence. Well, septic, and propane tank ready to go. Three Bedroom, 1.5 Bathroom home, move in ready. Stove, dishwasher, and laundry included. Furniture negotiable! Gated entrance. HOA and taxes apply for three lots. HVL Bylaws and updates in links. Prefer cash purchase! No owner financing.

19. 2025-12-04
    price $85,000 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    REDUCED! Home and two additional lots, total of 1.5 acres in Hidden Valley Lakes! Steps from the lake and a short walk or ATV ride to the pool, playground and main entrance. These are multi-purpose lots for permanent residence. Well, septic, and propane tank ready to go. Three Bedroom, 1.5 Bathroom home, move in ready. Stove, dishwasher, and laundry included. Furniture negotiable! Gated entrance. HOA and taxes apply for three lots. HVL Bylaws and updates in links. Prefer cash purchase! No owner financing.

20. 2025-11-09
    listed $90,000 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    REDUCED! Home and two additional lots, total of 1.5 acres in Hidden Valley Lakes! Steps from the lake and a short walk or ATV ride to the pool, playground and main entrance. These are multi-purpose lots for permanent residence. Well, septic, and propane tank ready to go. Three Bedroom, 1.5 Bathroom home, move in ready. Stove, dishwasher, and laundry included. Furniture negotiable! Gated entrance. HOA and taxes apply for three lots. HVL Bylaws and updates in links. Prefer cash purchase! No owner financing.

21. 2000-06-11
    soldstatus $141

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$892
• − Management: −$892
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,415
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$579
• After-tax cash flow: $2,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman County
• NCES district ID: 4701860
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,457
• Composite: 18.14/100
• National rank: #8966
• State rank: #107 of 139 in TN

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #8292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,999

Population outlook (Hickman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,337 people
• By 2030: 22,650 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 21,310 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 19,972 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 17,073 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 14,630 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+27.2 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.56%
• Current HPI: 106.4702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $75,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $80,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $85,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-09 Listed $90,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $141 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $47 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.