409 W Magnolia St

Fitzgerald, GA 31750

$29,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 420 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,149/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $711/mo
• Annual: $8,532/yr
• Cap rate: 34.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 101.91%
• DSCR: 5.53
• 1% rule: 3.84%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 420 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#513 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ben Hill County (rural): math 19% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #145 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ben Hill County Primary School (864 students, 89% FRL); Ben Hill County Middle School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #356 of 470 statewide, top 78%, 687 students, 89% FRL); Fitzgerald High School School College And Career Academy (math 20% / reading 12%, grade F, #287 of 424 statewide, top 68%, 861 students, 65% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Ben Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ben Hill County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $30k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 34.8% vs local median 5.0% in Fitzgerald — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 420 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.